Publications

2024

• The Total Effect of Social Origins on Educational Attainment: Meta-analysis of Sibling Correlations From 18 Countries
  
  • Anderson Lewis
  • Präg Patrick
  • Akimova Evelina
  • Monden Christiaan
  Demography, Springer Verlag, 2024, 61 (5), pp.1637-1666. Abstract The sibling correlation (SC), which estimates the total effect of family background (i.e., social origins), can be interpreted as measuring a society's inequality of opportunity. Its sensitivity to observed and unobserved factors makes the SC an all-encompassing measure and an attractive choice for comparative research. We gather and summarize all available estimates of SCs in educational attainment (M = .46, SD = .09) and employ meta-regression to explore variability in these estimates. First, we find significantly lower SCs in Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark than in the United States, with U.S. correlations roughly .10 (i.e., 25%) higher. Most other (primarily European) countries in our study are estimated to fall in between these countries and the United States. Second, we find a novel Great Gatsby Curve–type positive association between income inequality in childhood and the SC, both cross-nationally and within countries over time. This finding supports theoretical accounts of the Great Gatsby Curve that emphasize the role of educational inequality as a link between economic inequality and social immobility. It implies that greater equality of educational opportunity likely requires reduced economic inequality. Additionally, correlations between sisters are modestly higher, on average, than those between brothers or all siblings, and we find no overall differences between cohorts. (10.1215/00703370-11579806)
  DOI : 10.1215/00703370-11579806
• Russia's invasion of Ukraine and perceived intergenerational mobility in Europe
  
  • Gugushvili Alexi
  • Präg Patrick
  British Journal of Sociology, Wiley, 2024, 75 (5), pp.873-891. Abstract In this study, we shed light on the social consequences the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had in other European countries. We argue that positive perceptions of one's intergenerational mobility are linked with political and economic stability and that the war can thus be expected to impact intergenerational mobility perceptions. We test our pre‐registered hypothesis with representative survey data from three European countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden, which were significantly affected by the ongoing war. Our results show that individuals' war‐related concerns in all countries are divided into proximal and distal concerns. In turn, proximal concerns go along with greater perceived downward and less perceived upward mobility in the United Kingdom and Germany. We interpret these findings by calling for expanding the horizons of intergenerational mobility research by incorporating areas of life other than socio‐economic position. (10.1111/1468-4446.13135)
  DOI : 10.1111/1468-4446.13135
• The field of explainable AI: machines to explain machines?
  
  • Berkouk Nicolas
  • Pialat Romain
  • Arfaoui Mehdi
  • Francois Pierre
  • Barry Laurence
  , 2024. Deep learning techniques have undergone a massive development since 2012, while a mathematical understanding of their learning processes still remains out of reach. The upcoming successes of systems based on such techniques in critical fields (medicine, military, public services) urges policy makers as well as economic actors to interpret the systems’ operations and provide means for accountability of their outcomes. In 2016, DARPA’s Explainable AI program was followed by a sudden appearance of scientific publications on “Explainable AI” (xAI). With a majority of publications coming from computer science, this literature generally frames xAI as a technical problem rather than an epistemological and political one. Exploring the tension between market strategies, institutional demand for explanation, and a lack of mathematical resolution, our presentation proposes to establish a critical typology of xAI techniques. - We first systematically categorized 12,000+ papers in the xAI research field, then proceeded to a content analysis of a representatively diversified sample. - As a first result, we show that xAI methods come considerably diversified. We summarize this diversity in a 3-dimensional typology: technical dimension (what kind of calculation is used?), empirical dimension (what is being looked at?) and ontological dimension (what makes the explanation right?) standpoints. The heterogeneity of those techniques not only illustrates disciplinary specificities, but also points at the opportunistic methodologies developed by AI-practitioners to respond to this tension. The future of this work aims to identify the social conditions that generate the diversity of these techniques, and help regulators navigate through them.
• Heterogeneity without controversy: the field of xAI as the encounter between market strategies and institutional demands for deep learning accountability
  
  • Berkouk Nicolas
  • Pialat Romain
  • Arfaoui Mehdi
  • Francois Pierre
  • Barry Laurence
  , 2024. The upcoming successes of deep learning based systems in critical fields (medicine, military, public services) is conducive to serious concerns on the interpretability and accountability of its outcomes. Therefore, the research production on “Explainable AI” (xAI) should raise considerable scientific controversy and social debate. In contrast, this communication emphasizes the actual almost non-existence of controversy emerging from the development of the xAI literature. Even though, in 2016, DARPA’s “Explainable AI program” was followed by a sudden appearance of scientific publications on xAI, those generally framed xAI as a technical problem rather than an epistemological and political one. Exploring this paradox between an abundant literature on xAI and an absence of controversy, we intend to open the black box of self-appointed AI-explainers. Our presentation thus urges a renewal of STS methodologies to establish a critical typology of xAI techniques. Our methodology was twofold: we first systematically categorized 12,000+ papers in the xAI research field, then proceeded to an analysis of the mathematical content of a representatively diversified sample. As a first result, we show that xAI methods come considerably diversified. We summarize this diversity in a 3-dimensional typology: technical dimension (what kind of calculation is used?), empirical dimension (what is being looked at?) and ontological dimension (what makes the explanation right?) standpoints. The heterogeneity of those techniques not only illustrates disciplinary specificities, but also shows that the research field on xAI progresses rather autonomously and opportunistically with primary objectives to fuel market strategies and answer the institutional demand for explanation
• Understanding Ukrainian society before and after the Russian invasion
  
  • Martsenyuk Tamara
  • Gugushvili Alexi
  • Ersanilli Evelyn
  • Präg Patrick
  European Societies, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2024, 26 (2), pp.173-177. (10.1080/14616696.2024.2350780)
  DOI : 10.1080/14616696.2024.2350780
• Subjective social status and trajectories of frailty: findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing
  
  • Maharani Asri
  • Richards Lindsay
  • Präg Patrick
  BMJ Public Health, British Medical Journal, 2024, 2 (1), pp.e000629. Objectives Subjective social status is a known antecedent for many health outcomes, but little research has examined the association between subjective status and frailty among older people. Using longitudinal data, the goal of this study was, first, to identify latent trajectories of frailty over time, and second, to investigate the relationship between subjective social status and frailty trajectory. Methods Data were drawn from the 2002–2019 surveys of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, involving 9484 individuals aged 50+ years at baseline. Group-based trajectory models were used to identify frailty trajectories over the 18-year period, and multinomial regression models were used to investigate the relationship between subjective social status and frailty trajectory membership. Controls were included for confounding factors, including a range of socioeconomic indicators and health behaviours. Results Four trajectories of the frailty index were retained: low frailty (53% of participants), progressive mild frailty (25%), progressive moderate frailty (15%) and high frailty (6%). Higher subjective social status is associated with higher probabilities of being in the low-frailty group and lower probabilities of being in one of the progressive or high-frailty groups. Conclusions Subjective social status is significantly associated with being in a milder frailty trajectory after controlling for age, health behaviours and a wide range of objective socioeconomic status markers. (10.1136/bmjph-2023-000629)
  DOI : 10.1136/bmjph-2023-000629
• L'assurance dans la couverture et la prévention des catastrophes
  
  • Francois Pierre
  • Barry Laurence
  , 2024.